Conference-debate. The Mediterranean in 2030 : Which propositions for better convergence?

Numerous Euro-Mediterranean figures took part in the conference-debate organized by IPEMED on 9 December 2011 in partnership with the Caisse des Dépôts on “The Mediterranean in 2030, what propositions for better convergence?” – the theme of a forecasting study recently concluded by IPEMED. The work was unanimously praised and the various speakers enjoyed adding their own contributions.

Laurent Vigier, Director of European and International Affairs at the Groupe Caisse des Dépôts, made a preliminary speech in which he reminded the audience that the Groupe Caisse des Dépôts has made the Mediterranean area a focus of its international strategy since 2007 – resulting in the creation of several financial instruments, and in particular the Inframed fund, which is currently reviewing 40 projects for funding. “We believe in the future of the South Mediterranean. We have no lessons to give, but we would like to look for common solutions together and build a shared path for the future,” said Laurent Vigier.

Jean-Louis Guigou, Delegate-General and founder of IPEMED, called for action from the elite with his habitual enthusiasm: “You, the elite, mustn’t give up, you must be more vigilant than ever to prevent mistrust from taking hold among the people… How do you do it? You need to ask yourselves what can bring the two sides of the Mediterranean closer and aim at getting it right…. At IPEMED we have identified four decisive factors in the Mediterranean’s future: the regionalization of globalization; the democratization of Arabic countries; North-South convergence; and economic integration, as the Germans did with Eastern European countries.”

Moving on to develop each of his points, Jean-Louis Guigou said that he regretted that Europe had still not integrated its south, unlike the other major regional blocks (Alena, Nafta, etc.), because “the block that wins will be the one that makes the best connection with its south”.   

On the topic of convergence between north and south, Jean-Louis Guigou commented that the “Mediterranean in 2030” report is the fruit of two and a half years’ work, involving thirty intellectuals and forecasters from fifteen Mediterranean countries, gathered together at IPEMED’s initiative. “Three scenarios emerged: a complete shambles; marginalization, with the break-down of southern Europe; and a scenario of convergence between both sides. I’m clearly delighted that these competent men retained the convergence scenario, because the others would have put us in an intolerable position.”

Yadh Ben Achour, former President of the Higher Political Reform Commission (Tunisia), judged that to foster a scenario of regional Mediterranean convergence, “We mustn’t forget the cultural aspect, because if we don’t take care of it at the same time, it will be a failure (…) In the rift we are witnessing between the elites’ secularized culture and the peoples’ confessional culture, there is a confrontation that borders on violence.”

In Europe, he said, we are seeing a dramatization of the victimization felt by Muslim communities, who try to make host countries morally responsible for all of their problems, and so set off a string of reactions and breakdowns within the host country, including the rise of Islamophobia.

“We should view these reactions as alarm bells,” continued Yadh Ben Achour, “and admit that economic forecasting cannot exist without cultural forecasting”.      

In the same spirit, Yadh Ben Achour put forward recommendations for creating and reinforcing cultural convergence, including the proposition that “We should strongly disseminate the universal culture of Human Rights to show its superiority. I think that we can do that, because the culture of Human Rights is superior to the culture that made Man into God’s slave,” he concluded.         

Miguel Angel Moratinos, a former Spanish minister and an ardent Euro-Mediterranean campaigner, expressed his wish to add a tenth recommendation to the nine (1) put forward in IPEMED’s “Mediterranean 2030” report: “My tenth recommendation is political – because I refuse to be governed by economists, which is the reason why everything’s in such a mess! We need to make a political commitment to resolve the major crises that had such a negative effect on the Barcelona Process. It should involve opening up borders, ending the Western Sahara conflict and refusing a continuation of the Middle East conflict. We need to make peace now because the Arab democracies are going to ask for it.”

Miguel Angel Moratinos added that the UfM needs to adapt to the new situation: “Only one thing matters – having the political volition, and then we can succeed.”

Abderrahmane Hadj Nacer, former Governor of the Bank of Algeria agreed: “I’m an economist, but I only believe in politics!” then continued in the same vein: “There isn’t enough political analysis of the fact that the European Union has no long-term vision. It’s remarkable to see so much short-term thinking in Europe. Is it because of the way Europe has been built?”

According to Mr Nacer, “Current reforms in Algeria are in regression compared with the situation twenty years ago! Yet just recently, a [French] official came to congratulate us… We’ve given up supervising people in the mosques, and we’ve destroyed all mediation in civil society. Now we’re seeing the danger emerge of a movement that would like to break the momentum [of the Arab spring]… I can’t help wondering whether our European neighbours realize what’s happening. I’m not sure they do.”

Elisabeth Guigou, former Minister and a member of parliament, esteemed that “Nothing will ever be the same again in those countries. The revolutions sprang from inhabitants’ extremely strong aspiration and their desire to break free from despots. Yes, we need to totally restructure the Euro-Mediterranean partnership and inspire trust: it’s a good thing that the results of the elections have been respected at last, unlike what happened with Algeria. But, as a woman, I’ll be keen to make sure that all they’ve achieved is not put in jeopardy.”

The former minister also considered that Europe needs a long-term vision, which is “in its strategic interest,” and that the moment is ripe to restructure the North-South partnership, because “we’re lucky enough to experience a second Arab Renaissance – after the Nahda in the 19th century, which saw Tunisia abolish slavery in 1846, two years before France, and set up a constitution separating civil society and religion”.

Although the European Union is apparently aware of this historic opportunity, “it doesn’t do enough,” esteemed Elisabeth Guigou, who talked of the inevitable perspective of a “form of political union between the whole of Europe and the southern Mediterranean countries”.

Doctor Adel El-Beltagy, Chairman of the International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM), also considered that “we need to rediscover each other so that we can work together with joint responsibility, otherwise we won’t succeed. It’s an urgent situation and we need to act fast (…)” Given the need to create 50 million jobs in the south, what can Europe offer? “Knowledge, institutions and know-how that can be transferred, in a win-win spirit, resulting in better integration and less trouble in Europe.”  

El Mouhoub Mouhoud, Professor of economics at Paris Dauphine University, said that to move towards convergence, “countries in the south need to work with each other on regional integration”. This is already happening in the East Mediterranean, “where Turkey plays a major economic and political role” and increasingly stands out as a social, cultural and religious model.

The first stage in regional “integration” around Turkey “could have an effect on better Mediterranean integration,” the professor continued, who also said that the current “Algerian-Moroccan deadlock could be sidestepped”.

Jean-Louis Chaussade, Chief Executive Officer of Suez Environment, who was elected as the new Chairman of IPEMED’s Advisory Board on the same day (succeeding Gérard Mestrallet, whose term had come to an end) made some very pragmatic observations: “By 2030, water resources are going to be a huge issue. Only 3% of global water resources are located in Mediterranean countries, and the South side only possesses 13% of Mediterranean reserves, with demand set to rise by 25% to 30%. In other words, I can’t see how we can work towards North-South convergence if we don’t resolve the water issue together. We need to define a genuine common water policy, and create a Mediterranean water agency,” continued Jean-Louis Chaussade, pointing out that if (good) governance could be established, “we could make the investments”.

Xavier Beulin, Chairman of Sofiprotéol and the FNSEA, agreed with Jean-Louis Chaussade that water and the risk of drought are pressing issues shared by both sides of the Mediterranean.  

Picking up the idea of a EuroMed CAP raised by Miguel Angel Moratinos, Xavier Beulin declared that it was a prospect that he and Henri Nallet had pushed for. “Europeans have nothing to fear, it could be an excellent platform for joint research,” he claimed, before explaining that in France, for example, losses in purely agricultural jobs have been compensated by creations higher up and lower down in the chain. “According to INSEE, if we add up everything to do with agriculture, it represents 15% of paid jobs, and not 4.5%, as is commonly said. Agriculture, and everything to do with it – the food industry, services, etc. – clearly offers some very significant lines of development.”

Bahadir Kaleagasi, Chairman of the Institut du Bosphore (Turkey) observed that, “In an expanding world, Europe is shrinking!” He said that Europe should stop viewing its immediate neighbours as external and consider them as part of a big, inner Euro-Mediterranean circle. “Turkey is en route for membership – over 60% of Community acquis are now transferred – but the EU is in the process of change.”

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Mr Kaleagasi pointed out, “Europe reacted properly by giving Eastern European countries the opportunity to join the Union. Today, at a time when the South Mediterranean is experiencing revolutions, we need a credible, meaningful perspective.”

Radhi Meddeb, President of IPEMED, summed up by saying that the Mediterranean “will not move towards convergence unless the rifts between east and west are eliminated,” especially since climate change will only aggravate imbalances and major problems in the region (i.e. water, food security, etc.).  

To confront the situation, “The Euromed process needs to be thoroughly overhauled. It should also become a project for the people and not just the elites. That could be the key to the convergence scenario that we are all so keen on finding”.

Gérard Mestrallet, CEO of GDF SUEZ had the honour of giving the closing speech in his capacity as outgoing Chairman of the IPEMED Advisory Board, after serving three successive terms.   

According to Gérard Mestrallet, “The UfM has been through something of a breakdown, but the role of business is to move forward without waiting for policies. Companies ready to commit themselves to cooperate with the South have a role to play, and getting them together was the goal of my work with IPEMED. That is also why we created the EMCC, the Euro-Mediterranean Competitiveness Council, to take the initiative and go forward, because the Mediterranean’s time has come!

 “Our vision is to make the Mediterranean an integrated, powerful, socially responsible territory for growth and a great global region. The European Union crisis and the upheavals in the Arab world should reinforce our desire to act, firmly and fast.”


 

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(1) To accomplish the regional convergence scenario that IPEMED hopes for, nine recommendations for a Mediterranean “ecosystem” were put together. They are, in brief:

1: To invest in human capital by encouraging mobility
2: To accelerate the transfer of knowledge, skills and technology
3: To create a common institutional area accompanied by financial transfers
4: To set up a Mediterranean labelling process initially covering services and agriculture
5: To select projects for UfM co-funding based on their potential to create employment and/or their energy restraint
6: Create a Mediterranean environment fund
7: Set up a Mediterranean investment bank
8: Intensify transport networks in the South Mediterranean with a view to encouraging more fluid South-South commercial exchanges
9: Establish a common food security policy.

 

Full version:   “Tomorrow, the Mediterranean. Scenarios and projections for 2030”
Collective work edited by Cécile Jolly. Produced with the “Mediterranean 2030” consortium. 
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