Is the slowdown in Chinese growth a blessing for Europe and Africa?

Published : Thursday 22 October 2015
Jean-Louis Guigou


Translation of a column published on 23rd October 2015 on the website of Monde Afrique (available in French only)


The economic press is concerned about the consequences the slowdown in Chinese growth (7%) could have on Europe. And yet, southern and eastern Mediterranean countries, as well as African countries, represent a source of growth that could balance the trend in the medium and even in the short term.

Contrary to what the media generally convey, all Mediterranean and African States are not ravaged by wars and epidemics. In 2014, out of the ten countries with the highest growth, five were African countries. The economic take-off of the whole continent since 2002 is a reality and Middle Eastern countries continue to attract investments.

Two arguments let us think that Africa and the Mediterranean will represent, at the crossroads of Europe, privileged development zones “boosted” by the slowdown in Chinese growth and by Beijin’s policy regarding Africa and the Mediterranean.

Africa, Europe’s new workshop

Firstly, according to the World Bank experts, the change in growth model - from exportation to national consumption - will help accelerating the relocation of 85 million jobs outside China over the next few years. It is likely to benefit mostly Africa. From Cairo to Tangier, an industrial zone should be created - including Tanger-Med and the Suez Canal - completely renovated and with a great number of offshore activity zones, clusters, science and technology parks, etc. With its skilled workforce, cheap energy and large open spaces, North Africa could become Europe’s workshop - quickly and inexpensively.

The Chinese are everywhere in Africa. Their interest for the continent dates backs to the 1990’s and they have been preparing the ground for a long time now. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation first appeared in 2000, followed by the Forum on China-Arab States Cooperation in 2004. Given the issues afflicting the continent, the results were quite irregular and China shifted its focus on the Mediterranean. As the former Tunisian diplomat Basly Mohamed Sahbi pointed out, this is where China “seems to build its foundation in order to intervene in Europe”.

Firstly, Beijing is quite active in Greece. The recent visit of the Chinese Prime Minister led to 19 cooperation agreements amounting to €3.4 billion and to the purchase of two of the Piraeus marine terminals. In Turkey, Chinese investors acquired 65% of Kumport marine terminals (Sea of Marmara) and signed an agreement on a high-speed railway that will cross Turkey from side to side (“new silk road” project). Finally, Algeria became China’s second partner after Nigeria, with investments amounting to $8.2 billion.

To conclude, relocations coming from China, along with the Chinese strategy in the Mediterranean and in Africa, could be great assets to create, to the South of France and Europe, in the Mediterranean and in Africa, significant sources of external growth that could benefit French and European companies. 


Jean-Louis Guigou, President of IPEMED 

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