Mediterranean 2030 : scenarios and projections

Published : Tuesday 13 December 2011
At the time of the Arabic revolutions and of the crisis of the Euro zone, the Mediterranean is facing great uncertainty regarding its future. The Euro-Mediterranean integration suffers from it. However, a rich web of economic, institutional and human relations is constantly being woven, in this region in progress. In front of obvious synergies (collective preferences, demographic, natural resources but also in the production of goods and services) and challenges to which countries cannot respond individually (shortfall of adapted jobs, climate change and preservation of natural resources, food crises, migrations), several scenarios can be drawn up. This is exactly what the “Mediterranean 2030” consortium, launched by IPEMED in April 2009, has tried to achieve.

The future of the region is facing several threats: a disparate insertion of countries in the world’s economy, producing divergences between the economies of the region; or a scenario darken by the 2008 crisis, leading to bottom-up convergence and the marginalization of Mediterranean countries weaken by the sovereign debt’s crisis, in the North, and a political transition struck, in the South.

These scenarios are both plausible and unfavourable for Euro-Mediterranean integration.

Yet, another future is possible. Hinged on pro-active political action shared by all countries, a Euro-Mediterranean convergence can be envisaged. For this to happen, it is necessary to promote complementarities, a greater redistribution of wealth and competitiveness in a regionally integrated system that benefits from the four freedoms implemented in the EU. To do so, the “Mediterranean 2030” consortium has set out 9 recommendations for a Mediterranean “ecosystem” .

Cécile Jolly & Macarena Nuño.

Read too :

> Ipemed palimpsestes N° 11 :  The Mediterranean in 2030 : routes to a better future

> Collection «Building the Mediterranean» :  Tomorrow, the Mediterranean. Scenarios and projections for 2030

> Conference-debate. The Mediterranean in 2030 : Which propositions for better convergence?

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