Plenary meeting of the “Mediterranean 2030” consortium

Published : Thursday 25 March 2010
On 25 March 2010, the partners of the “Mediterranean 2030” consortium met at a plenary conference at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs to present the initial conclusions of their reflection.

Exceptional speakers, like Mr Kemal Dervis and Mr Georges Corm, shared their vision of the region’s future with Euro-Mediterranean organizations (CARIM, CIHEAM, FEMISE, OME) and the national public and private forecasting institutions that attended. Their focused their speeches on three points: the impact of the deterioration of the Mediterranean environment, the lethargy that characterizes rentier economies in the area and the unprecedented structural transformations of the global economy.

The Strategic Analysis Centre then presented the decisive factors for Mediterranean growth, with a particular focus on the demographic issue, funding capacities and the availability of natural resources in the region. The Mediterranean’s assets were also emphasized, which include the growth in commercial exchanges, the progression of FDI, which is more geographically and sectorially diverse, and the potential advantages of the Mediterranean’s strategic geographic location as a transit zone for the global economy. These assets should be exploited coherently to rise to the challenges of the future, particularly economies’ slowness to diversify and the difficult conquest of the technological frontier.

-       The marginalization scenario, with a bottom-up convergence, if current trends are followed (European growth rates under 2% per year, close to 3-4% in South and East of the Mediterranean and in the Balkans). In 2030, income gaps between countries would not have closed up, and specialization in South and East Mediterranean countries would remain confined to low-quality, low-tech products. Environmental pressure will increase, the employment issue will not be solved and migratory pressure will remain high.

-       The divergence scenario, with a disparate insertion of countries in the world economy. Growth, drawn by emerging countries, will reinforce competition to the detriment of purchasing power and domestic demand, benefiting the most competitive economies that have already been catching up (Croatia, Turkey, Tunisia), deepening the gap with other Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Albania). There will be wth winners and losers at national and regional level, as well as a strong duality of economies and territories. Employment and activity rates will rise unequally and labour market duality will remain marked, in the North and the South, emphasizing inequality between elites and low-qualified workers.

-       The top-down convergence scenario, characterised by a stronger and richer economic growth in term of employment, which is a consequence of the valorisation of Euro-Mediterranean synergies, of the regional establishment of the four EU freedoms and of the implementation of an enforced institutional framework in which the perspectives of access to the European Union or to the European internal market will foster the harmonization of norms. In this context, internal levers for growth will result in increased regional productivity and employment and in a per capita incomes convergence that could attain, in 2030, over USD 10,000. Activity rates in South and East Mediterranean and Adriatic countries would be close to those of Europe, where more circular and better “integrated” migration would fill in the labour gaps and fuel consumer markets.


This plenary meeting was followed by a working morning on 26 March 2010 involving consortium members. The aim was to further discuss regional scenarios, plus future action and recommendations to be addressed to Heads of State and Government at the second Union for the Mediterranean summit.

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